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Highest transfer values outside the big-5

The 554th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top ten players by league with the highest transfer value across 55 competitions outside Europe’s big-5. According to our proprietary statistical model, recently updated with the latest transfers and price inflation, FC Porto’s Victor Froholdt has the highest valuation (€83.7 million)

Benfica’s Vangelis Pavlidis (€65.0 m) and Al-Hilal’s Gabriel Martinelli (€63.6 m) round up the podium. In other major leagues, the following players top the list : Club Brugge’s Nicolò Tresoldi in Belgium (€61.4 million), Fenerbahçe’s Mason Greenwood in Turkey (€61.0 million), Palmeiras José Manuel López in Brazil (€53.9 million), and Ajax’s Jorthy Mokio in the Netherlands (€53.4 million).

Diogo Costa (FC Porto) is potentially the most expensive non-big-5 goalkeeper (€49.3 million), as are Gonçalo Inácio (Sporting CP) among centre backs (€57.0 million) and Samuel Dahl (SL Benfica) among wide backs (€52.7 million). This tool lists the top-rated player by club in 70 leagues around the world. A paid platform is also available to football professionals.

>>> All the data

>>> Scientific paper on the method

World’s best U21s outside the big-5: last year performance

The 533rd CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the outfield players who have not yet turned 21 and are playing outside Europe’s big-5 having performed best over the past year, based on a score out of 100 calculated from their statistics across eight game areas (Impect data), the number of official minutes played, and the competitive level of these matches.

Argentine Gianluca Prestianni tops the rankings with a score of 86.5 out of 100. The Benfica right winger, whose transfer value as estimated by our statistical model already exceeds €50 million, is ahead of AZ Alkmaar’s midfielder Kees Smit and Dinamo Kyiv centre forward Matviy Ponomarenko. Fourth-placed Tomás Aranda (Boca Juniors) is the highest-ranked player active outside of Europe, ahead of Leonel Flores (River Plate) and Álvaro Montoro (Botafogo).

Serbia’s Vasilije Kostov (Red Star Belgrade) is the youngest player in the top 10 (18.2 years of age). The American Cavan Sullivan (Philadelphia Union, 16.9), his compatriot Adri Mehmeti (New York Red Bulls, 17.4) and the Mexican Gilberto Mora (Club Tijuana, 17.9) are the youngest talents in the top 100. In total, no fewer than 34 leagues are represented in the first 100 positions, with a maximum of 14 players from the Dutch Eredivisie.

>>> Full data

>>> Method to analyse players’ pitch performance

>>> Method to assess matches’ sporting level

>>> More performance data with Impect

>>> New Prospect Sheet : Winsley Boteli 

Costliest squads: Liverpool takes the lead

The 552nd CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks the teams worldwide having invested the most on transfer fees (including add-ons, regardless of effective payment) to sign the players currently in their squads. Liverpool FC (€1.226 billion) has moved up three places compared with the same date last year and now tops the table, replacing Chelsea FC.

Six English clubs occupy the top six places, whilst Real Madrid has overtaken Paris Saint-Germain among teams from other countries. The Post also presents the net transfer spending for both the current calendar year and the last ten transfer windows. For 2026, the values stretch from +€207 million for Paris St-Germain to -€287m for Al-Hilal SFC. Over the last five years, from +€337 million for LOSC Lille to -€873m for Al-Hilal SFC again.

In terms of transfer expenditure only, five English clubs are at the top of the table for both 2026 (Manchester City, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle) and the last five-year period (Chelsea, Manchester City, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United). Brighton & Hove is the only Premier League club with a positive net transfer balance over the last ten transfer windows (+€33m).

>>> Full data

Top development clubs worldwide

The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post for what promises to be an exciting new season ranks teams from 50 top division leagues around the world according to the percentage of domestic league minutes in 2026 by players who had not yet turned 21 at the time of the matches.

Topping the table with 48.1% of minutes by U21s are Danish side FC Nordsjælland. This is a unique team and project, bringing together players trained locally or at the Right to Dream partner academy in Ghana, as well as other talents spotted at a very young age, and also standing out for its highly technical style of play, its ability to generate great transfer fees and its proven results.

RC Strasbourg ranks second (37.9% of minutes by U21s), whilst the Serbian side FK Partizan rounds up the podium (37.0%). Australia’s Melbourne City is the top-ranked team outside of Europe (5th, 32.9%). The City Group’s side are ahead of the Americans of San Diego FC (30.6%), a club also controlled by the owners of FC Nordsjælland, following a similar strategy both technically and demographically.

>>> Full data

>>> Other exclusive demographic data

>>> Last Prospect Sheet with Impect : Givairo Zechiël / Eredivisie

(Good) news from the CIES Football Observatory

As the transfer window draws to a close – with spending likely to reach record levels – and with most leagues resuming their fixtures following the World Cup, the CIES Football Observatory wishes you a fantastic new football season, with a Prospect Sheet as a gift.

Compiled by combining data generated by us with that collected by our partners at Impect, the analysis focuses on Feyenoord’s Dutchman Gjivai Zechiël, who stands out for his finishing ability. With a contract valid for just two years and an offer approaching his estimated value (€20m), a last-minute transfer is likely.

>>> All Prospect Sheets

We also invite you to make the most of the many other analyses available free of charge on our website, including our tools on demographics, migration, value and performance, and to follow us on social media. Our weekly posts will resume next week. If you wish to unsubscribe or update your subscription details, you can do so via the link below.

Yours in football, the CIES Football Observatory team

New video on migration in football

With another record-breaking transfer window in full swing, footballers are getting ready to pack their bags. Many of them are already playing outside the countries where they grew up, or are preparing for their first experience abroad. Where do these migrant footballers come from? Where are they going? Covering 135 leagues in 88 countries, this video explores the global geography of migration in football.

The analysis highlights the main exporting countries and migration patterns. From the global presence of Brazilian players to the more regional career paths of French and Argentine footballers, the study sheds light on the structure of the international labour market for professional footballers. The Atlas of Migration provides access to even more data.

The CIES Football Observatory website also provides all football fans with other tools enabling them to access exclusive data on team and player demographics, their performance (in collaboration with Impect) and transfer values (in this regard, a paid platform has been developed for industry professionals).

Make the most of these tools and do spread the word!

>>> Access the video

The CIES Football Observatory breaks new ground with Impect

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup in full swing, the CIES Football Observatory is proud to present a new tool, available free of charge, for analysing the characteristics of participating teams and players from the perspective of their technical performance.

For each outfield player fielded for at least 60 minutes, the tool provides an overall performance score out of 100, as well as scores across eight areas of play, based on match data exclusively produced by our partners at Impect, through which comparing players. Detailed explanations can be found in this note.

At team level, we present indices on a scale of 100 relating to teams’ propensity to press opponents, control the game or dominate offensively. The scores for each of these three aspects are constructed from nine indicators, making a total of 27, as explained in this document.

Further information on the outstanding work carried out by Impect is accessible here. We are also available to provide further details on the approach developed.

>>> Access the tool

CIES Football Observatory’s survey findings

The CIES Football Observatory’s research team is pleased to present the results of a survey conducted among our newsletter subscribers on the actions considered necessary in terms of the governance of men’s club soccer. In total, we received 1,424 responses.

For each question asked, we present the proportion of respondents who rated the urgency of taking further action in the relevant area as at least four on a scale of five. The percentages range from 84.9% of respondents calling for measures to combat money laundering through football to just 16.4% who consider it urgent to adopt new rules to deal with excessive goal celebrations.

More information is available upon request.

>>> Survey findings

>>> New Prospect Sheet with Impect : Ayyoub Bouaddi

Negative correlation between temperature and physical performance

The CIES Football Observatory is pleased to present a video analysing the relationship between the distance covered by players during a match and the ambient temperature. Data collected in partnership with SkillCorner from 35 leagues around the world indicates a significant decrease in the distance covered as temperatures rise.

On average, a player covers 10.1 km during 90 minutes of play if the temperature does not exceed 15°C ; this distance decreases by about one kilometre when the temperature rises to 30°C or higher.

Leagues located in the hottest regions are particularly affected by this heat stress, including the Pro League in the United Arab Emirates, the K League in South Korea, the Chinese Super League, La Liga in Spain, and the Brazilian Serie A. With the World Cup underway, MLS data also shows the negative impact of high temperatures on the distances covered.

>>> More about SkillCorner

>>> Full video

>>> New Prospect Sheet with Impect: Yan Diomandé

Top-valued teams: three main favourites

Based on the estimated transfer values* of the selected players, three national teams look like the main favourites to win the 2026 World Cup. England top the ranking with a total squad value of €1.454 billion. They are followed by France (€1.436 billion) and Spain (€1.407 billion). The values of all qualified teams are listed in the 550th Weekly Post of the CIES Football Observatory.

With inflation and a larger number of participating teams, the estimated total value of all squads in the competition reaches €18.1 billion. This is €3.1 billion more than at the 2022 World Cup. As noted last week, the statistical model of the CIES Football Observatory currently values only two players at more than €200 million : Spain’s Lamine Yamal and Norway’s Erling Haaland.

At the other end of the ranking, Iran is the qualified team with the lowest total transfer value, at only €12 million. It is followed by Iraq (€13 million) and Jordan (€15 million). However, strong performances in the competition could still help some players from these teams secure a transfer to much more competitive clubs.

* According to CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model

>>> Full data

Most expensive players: Yamal in a league of his own

The 549th Weekly Post presents the 100 players in the world with the highest estimated transfer value, as calculated from the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model. FC Barcelona’s young Spanish prodigy, Lamine Yamal, crushes the competition with a valuation of €358 million. Ahead of Manchester City’s Norwegian striker Erling Haaland (€227 million).

No other player is valued at over €200 million, with Kylian Mbappé in third place (€166 million). The following players are at the top of the list for the other positions : Gianluigi Donnarumma (goalkeepers), Pau Cubarsí (centre backs), Nico O’Reilly (wide backs), Pedri González (central midfielders) and Arda Güler (attacking midfielders).

Compared with last January, the largest increase was recorded for Yan Diomandé (+€75 million to €119 million), whilst the largest decrease was for Alexander Isak (-€54 million to €41 million). Compared with June’s 2025 ranking, the largest changes were registered again for Yan Diomandé on the positive side (+€116 million) and Jude Bellingham on the negative one (-€113 million).

>>> Top 100

Top valued player per club in 7⃣0⃣ leagues 👉 https://football-observatory.com/Tool-Value

New Prospect Sheet with Impect: Lucas Herrington

Most popular clubs on social media

The 548th Weekly Post from the CIES Football Observatory ranks clubs worldwide according to their number of followers on the main social media platforms (Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube and X). Two clubs stand out: Real Madrid (488 million followers) and Barcelona (442 million). England’s Manchester United complete the top three (239 million), ahead of Paris Saint-Germain (208 million).

Among teams ranked in the top 10 positions, German side Bayern Munich recorded the strongest growth over the past year both in absolute (+16.1 million followers) and relative terms (+11%). Clubs in the top 10 have a combined total of 2.36 billion followers, up 3.8% on last year, broken down as follows among the platforms selected: Instagram (31%), Facebook (31%), TikTok (17%), X (16%) and YouTube (5%).

Twenty-six countries from every continent except Oceania are represented in the top 100, with the highest number of clubs located in the following three nations: Spain (21 teams, often with a large following on TikTok), England (16) and Brazil (11). Outside Europe, the top three are Brazil’s Flamengo (€71.6 million), Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nassr FC (€66.0 million) and Egypt’s Al-Ahly SC (€60.1 million).

>>> Top 100

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