Issue number 404 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents sixty players whose contracts end next June with the highest Impact Score in their age group. The French Evan N’Dicka (Eintracht Frankfurt) tops the list among footballers who have not yet turned 23, the Spaniard Marco Asensio (Real Madrid) for those aged between 24 and 26, as well as Adrien Rabiot (Juventus) for players between 27 and 30 years of age.

While these players can be signed without the payment of a transfer fee in six months’ time, they already represent excellent opportunities for clubs wanting to get ahead of the competition. The highest transfer value among the footballers listed was recorded for Youri Tielemans (Leceister City, €30.8m), ahead of Milan Skriniar (Inter, €30.3m), Marco Asensio (Real Madrid, €21.9m), Youssoufa Moukoko (Borussia Dortmund, €20.3m) and Adrien Rabiot (Juventus, €19.5m).

The Impact Score is a metric that is perfectly comparable between all footballers regardless of their technical characteristics, taking into account the sporting level of matches played during the last year, minutes played in official games, as well as playing performances (InStat data). This tool available for free presents the Impact Score value for players in more than 70 leagues worldwide. Under contract only until June 2023 too, Luka Modric is among the six players scoring the highest (100).

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Jude Bellingham heads the list of the 100 players worldwide with the top estimated transfer value according to the statistical model exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. His owner club, Borussia Dortmund, could potentially earn up to €208m by transferring the 19-year-old English prodigy. With Bellingham’s contract running out in June 2025, this is probably the transfer window during which the Germans could make the biggest profit.

>>> GO TO THE TOP 100 LIST

Despite relatively short contracts lasting until June 2024, Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior are in the top four (both €191m), just ahead of the English Premier League top scorer Erling Haaland (€175m). With a contract running until 2027, the latter’s value is set to rise in the coming months to approach or even surpass that of the players ranked ahead of him, including that of his Manchester City’s teammate Phil Foden (€200m), currently second.

The greatest estimated value for players outside of the big-5 was measured for Benfica’s recent World Cup winner Enzo Fernández (€80m). The estimates for all footballers in the five major European championships are available in free access here. A paper presenting the method used is also available in the peer-review and open access journal Economies. An online platform with the valuations of >30k players from 75 leagues worldwide is accessible by subscription. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

With a new transfer window about to open, the 81st edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents its exclusive approach to player scouting, bringing together in a coherent framework different and complementary information such as the footballers’ playing time, level of competition, positions, technical areas of activity, age, contract length and transfer value.

The Report identifies the 200 players - the top 10 in twenty classification categories - born in 2002 or later who have accumulated the most playing experience in the last year. The categories were determined by the players’ primary position and activity level (InStat data) in eight areas of play: three defensive (air defence, ground defence, recovery), four offensive (take on, chance creation, shooting, air attack), as well as distribution.

For each player identified, the report also presents the contractual duration with the owning club and the estimated transfer value based on the CIES Football Observatory statistical model, which has become a reference. An online platform with a wide range of player statistics from 75 leagues around the world is now also available by subscription. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

>>> See the Report (pdf) (online)

The following players top the list for the twenty classification categories, with club of employment and estimated transfer value:

• Goalkeeper: Maarten Vandevoordt (KRC Genk) €18.1 million
• Defensive centre back: Castello Lukeba (Olympique Lyonnais) €37.0m
• Ball-playing centre back: Josko Gvardiol (RB Leipzig) €122.4m
• Defensive left back: John Tolkin (New York RB) €5.1m
• Defensive right back: Killian Sildillia (SC Freiburg) €5.4m
• Two-way left back: Nuno Mendes (Paris St-Germain) €66.0m
• Two-way right back: Amar Dedic (RB Salzburg) €6.6m
• Attacking left back: Quentin Merlin (FC Nantes) €19.1m
• Attacking right back: Malo Gusto (Olympique Lyonnais) €17.0m
• Defensive midfielder: Pablo Maia (São Paulo FC) €10.3m
• Defensive playmaker: Pedri González (FC Barcelona) €169.8m
• Two-way midfielder: Nicola Zalewski (AS Roma) €18.7m
• Attacking playmaker: Kenneth Taylor (AFC Ajax) €32.6m
• Attacking midfielder: Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund) €211.3m
• Shot-oriented left winger: Facundo Kruspzky (free) €0.0 m
• Shot-oriented right winger: Andrés Gómez (Millonarios FC) €8.1m
• Allrounder left winger: Adam Hlozek (Bayer Leverkusen) €29.8m
• Allrounder right winger: Angsar Knauff (Eintracht Frankfurt) €15.9m
• Shot-oriented centre forward: Marcos Leonardo (Santos FC) €29.2m
• Allrounder centre forward: Rômulo Cardoso (CA Parananense) €4.4m

Issue number 402 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post pays tribute to the Argentine players who took part in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers or final tournament. Rodrigo de Paul played the most games in total: 23, including all seven in Qatar. Nicolás Otamendi, on the other hand, leads the way in terms of minutes played (2,023).

A total of 40 footballers have played during the qualifiers or the final tournament. Giovani Lo Celso played the most minutes in the qualifiers among those who did not participate in the final tournament. Enzo Fernández, on the other hand, was used the most in the final phase (563 minutes in seven games) without having played in the qualifiers.

With 14 goals, seven of them in the final tournament, Lionel Messi is the Albiceleste player who has scored the most goals on the way to Argentina’s title. That is twice as many as the second highest scorer: Lautaro Martínez (7). Julián Alvarez complete the podium with five goals, four of them in the final phase. In total, thirteen players scored the 42 Argentine goals.

Issue 401 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the clubs having trained the most players selected for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Training clubs are those where players have stayed for at least three years between the seasons of their 15th and 21st birthdays. At the top of the list are the Dutch side of AFC Ajax with eleven players trained having represented five different national teams.

Deportivo Saprissa (Costa Rica) and Al Sadd (Qatar) complete the podium with ten and nine players trained respectively, but none of whom have reached the knockout stage. The top three clubs for footballers whose teams have reached the knockout stage are AFC Ajax, Dinamo Zagreb and Sporting CP, with eight players trained in all three cases. Manchester City has trained footballers for the most national teams: six.

Six English clubs and a Welsh one are in the top 50 of the table: Manchester City (7 players trained), Liverpool (also 7), Chelsea (6), Swansea City (6), Arsenal (5), Manchester United (4) and Tottenham Hotspur (4). Produced in collaboration with FIFA’s High Performance Department, the 80th CIES Football Observatory’s Monthly Report presents more exclusive analysis on the development paths of 2022 World Cup players.

The CIES Football Observatory research group is happy to disclose the 400th edition of its Weekly Post, presenting the 50 leagues where 2022 FIFA World Cup footballers have played the most senior matches up until their 23rd birthday. The German Bundesliga leads the table with more than 5,000 games played in the competition by 99 footballers present at the World Cup, representing 25 different national teams.

More World Cup participants (110 players from 26 selections) played in the English Premier League until turning 23, but for fewer matches and minutes than footballers having developed their career in the German Bundesliga and the Spanish Liga. The English Championship is the best ranked second tier competition (seventh), while the Italian Serie A (eighth) tops the table for leagues from an association not qualified for the World Cup.

Produced in collaboration with FIFA High Performance Department, the 80th CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents more exclusive data on the development paths of the 2022 FIFA World Cup players. It notably shows that the latter played senior league minutes in no less than 763 teams until they turned 23, of which 26.4% below top domestic league levels. This finding reveals the importance of taking care of all the sporting and economic levels of the football ecosystem to allow players, even the most talented ones, to develop their full potential.

>>> Post n° 400

>>> Report n° 80

Issue number 399 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks the World Cup teams according to the average number of minutes in official matches played in 2022 by the footballers used in the first round. Portugal leads the ranking with an average of 3,378 minutes (between 4,468 for João Cancelo and 2,205 for João Felix), reflecting the importance of the status of the Seleção’s key players within their clubs.

Portugal is ahead of Brazil and Mexico, while three Asian teams are at the bottom of the table: Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran. England (seventh) is among the eleven countries whose first-round players have averaged more than 3,000 minutes in 2022, as are the other two favourites for the tournament according to our Impact Score method: France (eighth) and Spain (eleventh). Korea Republic is by far the best ranked Asian selection: ninth.

On an individual level, Canadian Red Star Belgrade goalkeeper Milan Borjan is the player with the most official minutes in 2022, while Dutch centre back Virgil van Dijk has the highest value for an outfield player: 5,160 minutes. Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) was the most used English national team player in 2022 (4,830 minutes), while Callum Wilson (Newcastle United) is at the opposite end of the spectrum (only 997 minutes).

>>> Full rankings

The CIES Football Observatory research team used its Impact Score metrics to rank the FIFA World Cup 2022 teams from that reuniting the highest rated players to the selection relying on the lowest rated ones. Brazil tops the table by considering both all footballers selected and the eleven with the greatest Impact Score (one goalkeeper and ten outfield players). Costa Rica and Qatar are at the opposite end. The data for all teams is available in the 398th Weekly Post.

Spain are ranked behind Brazil when all the players selected are taken into consideration, while France would be the second main favourite if the average Impact Score of the ten best rated outfield players and goalkeeper is considered. England, Portugal and Germany also have the players to dream of winning the most coveted trophy. Argentina, the Netherlands, Belgium and Croatia are the principal outsiders.

The Impact Score is calculated from the average sporting level of matches in which players participated over the last 365 days, official game minutes played during the same time range and pitch performance compared to both teammates and opponents, as well as with respect to players with the same technical profile as per the role-based approach also freshly developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. The Impact Score for players from more than 70 leagues worldwide is available here.

The 831 players of the FIFA 2022 World Cup have a total estimated transfer value of €15 billion. By selection, the values range from as little as €23 million for the 26 footballers in the Costa Rica’s squad to a maximum of €1.5 billion for the players called up by England. Issue 397 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all the national teams.

Borussia Dortmund’s young crack Jude Bellingham has the top estimated transfer value among all World Cup players: €202m. Brazil has the second highest valued squad of the World Cup, with a total transfer value of €1.45 billion and a maximum for the decisive scorer of the last Champions League final, Real Madrid’s Vinícius Junior: € 200m (second highest value overall).

France is the third nation with the highest estimated transfer value: €1.34 billion. Despite a contract with Paris St-Germain running only until 2024, Kylian Mbappé is the top valued player of the French national team: €185m. The transfer values of all footballers from the five major European leagues are available here for free. This scientific paper presents the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical approach to estimating player values.

>>> Weekly Post

The CIES Football Observatory research group is happy to disclose its 79th Monthly Report on the demographic profile of players, clubs and leagues across Europe. In 2022, new records were set with regard to the percentage of expatriate footballers (42.3%) and, negatively, for the proportion of club-trained players (17.0%). In both cases, the trend reversal observed following the pandemic was short-lived.

The sample analysed includes 12,281 players active in 477 clubs of 31 top divisions of UEFA member associations. The typical portrait of the footballer in the sample is that of a man aged 26, with a height of just over 182 cm, present in the first team squad of his employer club for two years and three months and having in almost six cases out of ten already lived an experience abroad during his career.

A new record for the percentage of expatriate players was notably broken in the Italian Serie A (61.7%). The Italian top division also holds the negative record for the percentage of club-trained players in squads: 8.4%. These findings reflect the lack of importance given to training in the country, which reduces the poolof talents with a sufficient level to play at the highest level.

Clubs in three of the five major leagues have the most stable squads: the English Premier League with a player’s average tenure in the first team squad of his employer club of 3.1 years, the German Bundesliga (3.0 years) and the Spanish Liga (2.9 years). The longest player’s average tenure per club was recorded for Champions League title holders Real Madrid (5.1 years), which confirms the importance of long-term planning for optimum results.

>>> Access all Monthly Reports

The 396th CIES Football Weekly Post presents the 100 players outside the big-5 who have not yet turned 25 with the highest estimated transfer value. Three players stand out with values of around €60 million: Benfica’s Argentine midfielder Enzo Fernández, PSV Eindhoven’s Dutch striker Cody Gakpo and Porto’s Portuguese goalkeeper Diogo Costa.

Only one other player outside the big-5 has an estimated value of more than €50 million: Portuguese centre back Gonçalo Inacio (Sporting CP). The highest transfer values for footballers playing outside of Europe were recorded for Brazilians: Yuri Alberto (Corinthians, €30m), Danilo Oliveira (Palmeiras, €29m) and Marcos Leonardo (Santos, €28m). Fifteen leagues are represented in the top 100, with a maximum of 21 players for the Dutch Eredivisie.

The values were estimated on the basis of a statistical model developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team from almost 5,000 paid transfers concluded over the last decade. A scientific article explaining the approach is available in open access. Estimates for more than 15,000 players from about 50 leagues worldwide are available through a paying platform. Do not hesitate to contact us about this.

The 395th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post reveals that Manchester City fielded so far the most expensive starting 11 lineups from a transfer cost perspective. On average, Citizens’ starting lineups for Premier League games included players for whom the club invested up to €605m in transfer fees. Paris St-Germain (€510m) and Manchester United (€480m) complete the podium. The figures include eventual add-ons irrespective of their effective payment.

The most expensive starting 11 lineup was fielded by Manchester City on the 22 October for the 3-1 win against Brighton & Hove (€726m), while the Citizens’ “cheapest” one was fielded on the 31st of August for the 6-0 win against Nottingham Forest (€538m). For Paris St-Germain, the extreme values stretch from €610m (for the 1-0 win against Olympique de Marseille) down to €332m (for the 0-0 draw against Stade Reims).

Real Madrid (€370m), Juventus (€300m) and Bayern Munich (€294m) total the greatest figures for the other big-5 European leagues. Per competition, the average transfer expenditure to assemble starting 11 lineups is €233m in the Premier League, €83m in the Serie A, €76m in the Liga, €72m in the Bundesliga and €65m in the Ligue 1 (down to €41m not including Paris St-Germain). More insights will be published on our social media channels: Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok.