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The importance of big chances… or not!

The ability to both create and convert big chances is a key success factor. However, issue number 187 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights that in four out of the five major European leagues, teams heading the table distinguished themselves from runner-up clubs above all for their ability to score with no clear-cut opportunity available.

Rome (26), Paris St-Germain (25), Tottenham (34) and RB Leipzig (25) scored significantly fewer goals from situations with no big chance available than Juventus (37), Monaco (36), Chelsea (41) and Bayern Munich (40). In no big-5 European league, the club having created the most clear-cut scoring opportunities tops the rankings: PSG, Barcelona, Rome, Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City.

The key question is thus to know why some teams scored more goals with no big chance available. Luck certainly plays a role at this level. However, the greater desire to win should probably also be taken into account. In addition, while the best form of defence is attack, we should not forget the importance of defensive teamwork to win trophies.

Money and success: over- and under-performing teams

Issue number 186 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the results of big-5 league teams according to their transfer expenditure to sign the players fielded over the 2016/17 season. A positive and significant correlation was measured between fees paid and points per match in all leagues surveyed. This confirms the strong link between money and success.

Three teams performed much better than the amounts invested on the transfer market would have suggested: West Bromwich Albion, Atalanta and Freiburg. The most positive gaps in the French Ligue 1 were recorded for Nantes and Nice. Eibar and Alavés are at the top of the table at Spanish Liga level.

The club having so far the most under-performed with regard to its expenditure in signing players fielded is Wolfsburg. Results obtained by Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen, Hamburg and Sunderland were also clearly disappointing. The same holds true for Bastia in France, as well as for Inter and Palermo in Italy.

Best dribblers: the top 100 big-5 league list

Issue number 185 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 100 list of the best performing big-5 league players in the area of dribbling. Middlesbrough’s Adama Traoré outranks Eden Hazard (Chelsea) and Allan Saint-Maximin (Bastia). Neymar, Lionel Messi and Alexis Sánchez also are in the top 10 positions of the rankings.

The dribbling index is calculated by dividing the number of dribbles attempted by the percentage of successful ones. This allows us taking into account dribbling skills from both a quantitative and a qualitative perspective. In quantitative terms, the big-5 league player who attempted the most dribbles so far is Barcelona’s Neymar (269), ahead of Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace) and Felipe Anderson (Lazio).

The best ratio of successful dribbles among players in the top 100 list was recorded for OGC Nice’s midfielder Wylan Cyprien (87%). At second position is another French Ligue 1 player: Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain). The best ratio for players who attempted more than 100 dribbles was observed for Eden Hazard: 75%.

Digital Atlas updated

Dear subscriber,

The CIES Football Observatory research team is happy to inform you that the Digital Atlas was updated. It now takes into account domestic league games played during the last six months. This exclusive tool allows you to compare the squad make-up of teams in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations.

In addition, the new top 100 lists of the teams having fielded club-trained players for the highest percentage of minutes, the most stable line-ups, as well as the youngest ones are now available. The rankings refer both to the 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations and the five major European championships (Spanish Liga, English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and French Ligue 1).

We hope that you will enjoy these tools. Any feedback is welcome. We also kindly invite you to follow us on Twitter. Thank you for your interest!

The demographic stock exchange: a new tool at the service of football

The CIES Football Observatory published today the 24th edition of its Monthly Report. The study focuses on the demographic evolution of the big-5 European leagues since the start of the 2009/10 season. It notably shows that the percentage of minutes played by club-trained footballers in the English Premier League reached a new record low during the current season (6.1%).

The Report also highlights the increase in the playing time of expatriate footballers at the level of the five major European championships. Between 2009 and 2017, the percentage of minutes played by expatriates went up from 44.4% to 48.2%. A new record high was measured in January 2017: 48.7%. If this trend continues, the symbolic 50% threshold will be reached soon.

Today, expatriates already play the majority of minutes in the English Premier League and the Italian Serie A. In the two cases, we are close to record values. The Serie A also differentiates itself from the other leagues with regard to the extent of the increase measured since the 2009/10 season. On the other hand, the German Bundesliga is the only championship where the current value is lower than that recorded at the beginning of the period investigated.

The employment level of young players also varies considerably according to league. During the period studied, the French Ligue 1 overtook the German Bundesliga to become the competition where teams have the most confidence in U21 players. At the other extreme, the English Premier League overtook the Italian Serie A as the league in which U21 footballers have the least amount of playing time.

During the last six months, the percentage of domestic league minutes played by U21 footballers was 5.2% for the Premier League, 10.1% for the Serie A, 11.1% for the Liga, 13.3% for the Bundesliga and 15.7% for the Ligue 1. In England, the current value is very close to the record low measured in August 2013. In Italy, however, the record high measured in January 2017 could be beaten again by the end of the season.

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The Champions League among the most unbalanced competitions

The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post n° 184 presents the percentage of matches ended with a three-goal gap or over for 31 top division European leagues, as well as UEFA’s Champions League and Europa League. The analysis shows that the Champions League is among the most unbalanced competitions.

From the group stage up until now, the goal gap for more than a fifth of Champions League matches was at least three (21.0%). This is the third highest figure among competitions surveyed after those recorded in the Cypriot (22.5%) and Austrian (21.5%) top divisions. However, the value measured in the Europa League is particularly low (13.5%).

The big-5 leagues are also in the first half of the most unbalanced competitions. This finding reflects the increasing wealth gaps between participating teams. To re-balance competitions, the only solution would be to improve the distribution of financial (TV rights) and human (transfer market) resources at both national and international level.

Goals per match: the European league rankings

Issue number 183 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 31 top division European leagues according to goals scored since July 1st 2016. At the top of the table is the Swiss Super League (3.33 goals per game). The Russian Premier League finds itself at the opposite end of the spectrum (1.99).

At the level of the five major European championships, the figures vary from 2.90 goals per match in the Spanish Liga to 2.60 in the French Ligue 1. The English Premier League (2.84) ranks sixth (out of 31) at European level and second between the big-5 leagues.

Generally speaking, a negative correlation exists between the number of goals scored and the number of cards issued by referees (see Weekly Post n° 182). More goals equals to fewer cards. This finding confirms the existence of cultural differences in the way of approaching the matches according to country.

From Greece to Norway: booking politics throughout Europe

For the first time, issue number 182 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents data on cards issued by referees. The 31 top division European championships surveyed are ranked according to the average number of cards given per game. The Greek Super League heads the table (5.52), while the Norwegian Eliteserien is at the bottom of the rankings (2.93).

Southern and Eastern European countries are over-represented among those where the referees issue the most cards. On the contrary, in the majority of Northern and Western European countries, the number of cards is relatively low. These gaps reflect the existence of different cultures both from a player and a referee behaviour perspective.

Generally speaking, the number of yellow cards is correlated to that of red ones. The French Ligue 1 is an exception. At international level, French referees issue few yellow cards, but a lot of red ones. At the opposite end of the spectrum, in the English Premier League, the amount of red cards is very low compared to that of yellow cards.

Oldest clubs: the top 100 European list

Issue number 181 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights the 100 clubs from 31 top division championships of UEFA member associations having on average fielded the oldest line ups in the domestic league matches played during the last six months. The most represented countries in the rankings are England and Turkey (10 clubs each), followed by Cyprus and Russia (9 teams).

At the top of the table is the Italian side Chievo Verona (32.1 years). The average age on the pitch of five other clubs was higher than 30 years: three from Cyprus (AEK Larnaca, Nea Salamis and Apollon Limassol), one from England (West Bromwich) and one from Greece (Kerkyra). The values per league are freely available online via the CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas. This tool also allows users to access the data for all clubs in the leagues surveyed.

In addition, the CIES Football Observatory website presents the top 100 list of the youngest top division teams from the 31 UEFA member associations taken into account. The most represented country is the Netherlands (12 clubs), followed by Croatia (8), Germany and Slovakia (7 teams each). No English Premier League team is in the top 100 positions. The youngest team overall is the Slovakian side Senica (22.2 years).

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New Monthly Report: strategic analysis of a professional league

The studies carried out since 2005 by the CIES Football Observatory are not only geared towards the general public, but are also useful to actors in the game. The 23rd Monthly Report illustrates an approach that allows a professional football league to analyse on an objective basis its international positioning and influence in a positive way the strategic choices of the clubs that compose it.

The example chosen is that of the Swiss Football League. This choice is a result of the trust, built up over a number of years, that this institution has shown towards the CIES Football Observatory. This trust has led to the commissioning of several studies and research reports. These documents are available freely online in both French and German on the Swiss Football League website.

The Report notably highlights that in the current context of economic polarisation, the good health of the vast majority of clubs and leagues worldwide will depend on their ability join forces in their own interests. From the sporting point of view, the emphasis must be placed on improving the protection of the work of training, and, more generally, to increase the level of solidarity in the transfer system.

Squad turnover during the last five years: from Genoa to Bayern

The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post was published in March 2012. To celebrate this birthday, we ranked the 54 clubs always present in the big-5 leagues during the last five years according to the number of players fielded in domestic league games. Italian side Genoa used the most players overall: 137! At the opposite end of the spectrum are Athletic Club Bilbao, Bayern Munich and Borussia Mönchengladbach (55 players).

Eight of the eleven teams always present in the big-5 who fielded more than 100 players in domestic league matches since March 2012 are Italian. This reflects the very speculative transfer market approach existing in Italy. The greatest figures in squad turnover per league were recorded at Genoa (137 players), Granada (129), Sunderland (103), Nice and Stade Rennais (91, including many players from the youth academy), as well as Werder Bremen (90).

Many well-structured and performing teams fielded the fewest players during the period analysed. Among them, we notably find Bayern Munich (55 players), Paris St-Germain (64), Real Madrid (64 too), Arsenal (65) and Barcelona (66). The Weekly Post also presents the footballer who played the most domestic league minutes during the last five years for each club taken into consideration. St-Etienne’s goalkeeper Stéphane Ruffier tops the table: 16,650 minutes.

Best players per area of the game

Issue number 179 of the Weekly Post presents the best performing big-5 league players in the six areas of the game that make up the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach for the technical analysis of performance. The data refers to the last 1,000 minutes played by each player in domestic league matches. Only footballers fielded for at least 360 minutes since January 1st are included.

Nicolás Otamendi (Manchester City) heads the table for rigour ahead of Marquinhos (Paris St-Germain) and Javi Martínez (Bayern Munich). In the area of recovery, Sead Kolašinac (Schalke 04) outranks teammate Benedikt Höwedes, Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich) and Omar Mascarell (Eintracht Frankfurt). Three players top the distribution rankings: Thiago Motta (Paris St-Germain), Jorginho and Marek Hamšík (both Naples).

Two young talents have the highest possible score for take on: Allan Saint-Maximin (Bastia, on loan from Monaco) and Adama Traoré (Middlesbrough). Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) head the tables for chance creation and shooting.

Seven players are in the top 10 rankings in two different areas: Xabi Alonso, Ander Herrera and Arturo Vidal in recovery and distribution; Toni Kroos in distribution and chance creation; Alejandro Gómez and Neymar in take on and chance creation; as well as Lionel Messi in both chance creation and shooting.

The profile of all big-5 league players is available here.

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