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New Monthly Report: a transfer network analysis

Football offers a wide array of possibilities to undertake network analysis. Issue number 31 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report focuses on transfer networks from a triple research perspective. What are the main destinations for players from the three principal exporting countries: Brazil, Argentina and France? What are the big-5 league clubs’ recruitment areas? Where do Real Madrid, Manchester United, AS Rome, Bayern Munich and Paris St-Germain sign their players?

The study shows that the Brazilian player is the only truly global worker in the professional football labour market. Brazilians are present in 80 of the 91 associations covered in the study. While also numerous abroad, Argentineans and French migrate relatively more to neighbouring countries. The analysis also reveals that teams from the five major European championships transfer a higher percentage of players from abroad. However, the proportion of footballers signed from non-European countries is on the decrease.

An increasing number of players in general, and non-European ones more specifically, first move to intermediary countries in order to prove themselves before to eventually being able to attain a club in the big-5 leagues. Within this increasingly speculative and fragmented context, many footballers get lost along the way. Today more than ever, mental strength and cultural adaptability are of key importance to have a successful career path.

Atlético Madrid tops the big-5 league efficiency rankings

The technical statistics produced by the leading data football company InStat are very valuable to analyse performance on an objective basis. Issue number 210 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 50 teams in 35 European competitions with the most positive and negative gaps between points per match achieved and predicted on the basis of a performance model including the variables of shots conceded from the box, possession and shots on target.

The highest positive gap between points achieved and predicted according to pitch production was recorded for Viktoria Plze?. The Czech side obtained so far 2.88 points per game instead of 1.6. At big-5 league level, the greater positive difference between points achieved and expected was measured for Atlético Madrid. Burnley, Monaco, Manchester United, Nantes and Valencia were also particularly efficient.

Conversely, Greek sides Platanias heads the table for teams that achieved the least points per game with respect to their performance level (-0.97 points per match). Benevento and Milan AC were also particularly inefficient. Future will tell to what extent these negative gaps are related to bad luck. The European rankings for the three performance metrics used for this analysis are available here. Please contact us for more information about InStat data.

Transfer values: Neymar, Messi and Kane at the top

Like every January, the CIES Football Observatory has calculated the transfer values of players in the five major European leagues. The assessment takes into account the key criteria used by market actors such as age, position, contract duration, performance, international status, etc. Neymar (€213m) heads the table ahead of Lionel Messi (€202m) and Harry Kane (€195m). The top 100 list is available in issue number 209 of the Weekly Post.

Five players from the English Premier League are in the top ten: Harry Kane (2nd), Dele Alli (6th), Kevin de Bruyne (7th), Romelu Lukaku (8th) and Paul Pogba (10th). However, the highest estimated values for goalkeepers and defenders were recorded for two FC Barcelona’s players: Marc-André ter Stegen (€96m) and Samuel Umtiti (€101m). Paulo Dybala (€175m) heads the Serie A rankings, while Robert Lewandowski (€107m) has the greatest figure for German Bundesliga players.

This research note details the scientific methodology used for these estimates. The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the values for all big-5 league players. This transfer widget displays the trends from a comparative perspective. Potential clients and commercial partners are kindly invited to contact us to develop new collaborations for a new and exciting football year!

Full internationals: Barcelona heads the table

FC Barcelona currently employs 20 players fielded by national A-teams in 2017 for a record number of 139 matches and 10,846 minutes. The Catalan side outranks two English clubs (Manchester United and Tottenham), Juventus FC and Bayern Munich. At sixth place is the Nicaraguan team Real Estelí. The top 100 list is available in issue number 208 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

England is the most represented country in the top 100 positions: 16 clubs. Five English teams are in the top 10. Germany (10 clubs) and Italy (9) are the second and third nations with the most representatives in the top 100 rankings. The presence of six teams from the United States confirms the robust development of the professional game in this country.

Overall, 38 associations have at least one club ranked in the top 100. Among them, 20 are UEFA member associations, while 18 belongs to other Confederations. The three best ranked non-European teams are Real Estelí from Nicaragua, Al Sadd from Qatar and San Jose Earthquakes from the United States. For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

Our warmest season’s greetings to you and your family, and our best wishes for a happy and successful New Year!

Best performing big-5 league players of the semester

Every semester, the CIES Football Observatory lists players who performed the best in big-5 league matches using an exclusive statistical approach. Issue number 207 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 tables for eight positions. Only footballers who played at least 720’ domestic league minutes are included in the rankings.

Players from four leagues head the tables: Liga’s Jan Oblak (goalkeepers) and Lionel Messi (wingers); Premier League’s Nicolás Otamendi (centre backs) and Sergio Agüero (centre forwards); Ligue 1’s Marco Verratti (box-to-box midfielders) and Nabil Fekir (second strikers); as well as Serie A’s Faouzi Ghoulam (full backs) and Jorginho Frello (defensive midfielders).

Besides established football stars, in the top 10 tables also are relatively unknown footballers such as Nick Pope (Burnley), Alisson Becker (Roma), Michael Gregoritsch (Hoffenheim), Luis Alberto (Lazio) or Rodrigo Moreno (Valencia). The most represented club is Manchester City (12 players), ahead of Paris St-Germain (8 players).

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Highest transfer values for U21 players: Mbappé at the top

The young French prodigy Kylian Mbappé heads the CIES Football Observatory table for the U21 big-5 league players with the highest estimated transfer values. The Paris Saint-Germain striker outranks Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur) and Leroy Sané (Manchester City). The top 100 list is available in the issue number 206 of the Weekly Post.

According to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s algorithm, during the last three months, the transfer value of Kylian Mbappé has increased from €133.8 M to €182.8 M (+37%). This allowed him to outrank Dele Alli, whose transfer value remained stable at around €180 M. Ousmane Dembélé (Barcelona), Timo Werner (RB Leipzig) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) top the rankings in their respective leagues.

The estimated transfer values for all big-5 league players are available in the ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory’s website. This widget allows you comparing transfer value trends. Media and clubs interested in this tool or in our services can contact us.

Monthly Report highlights diversity of 2018 FIFA World Cup™ squads

The CIES Football Observatory and FIFA have joined forces to analyse the profiles of the players who were fielded by the 32 qualified teams on the road to Russia. The analysis highlights the diversity of the squads in terms of both age and height, as well as the importance of migration with almost two thirds of footballers currently playing for clubs outside of the association they represent.

Nigeria fielded the youngest players (with an average age of 24.9 years) in the qualifiers, followed by title-holders Germany (25.7) and by U-17 and U-20 world champions England (25.9). At the opposite end of the spectrum are two newcomers Panama (29.4 years) and Iceland (29.0), as well as 2014 FIFA World Cup quarter-finalists Costa Rica (29.0).

There were also considerable differences among the teams in terms of the average height of players. At one extreme, seven associations fielded players with an average height of less than 180cm: Peru, Argentina and Uruguay (CONMEBOL), Saudi Arabia and Japan (AFC), Mexico (CONCACAF), and Spain (UEFA). At the other extreme, the average height of the players fielded by four European nations – Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Serbia – was at least 185cm.

The study also reveals that about 9% of players were born outside of the association they represent. Only seven of the 32 teams did not field any players born abroad. The number of footballers playing for clubs outside of the association they represent also illustrates the importance of migration in football. In total, 64.6% of footballers play abroad: from 0% for England and Saudi Arabia, to 100% for Croatia, Sweden and Iceland.

The full study is available in issue number 30 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the Centre International d’Étude du Sport (CIES), a Swiss-based independent study centre founded in 1995 by FIFA in partnership with the canton and town of Neuchâtel. More information is available at www.cies.ch and www.football-observatory.com.

Most fielded young players: the top 10s per position

The 204th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post lists the 10 most fielded footballers per position born in or after 1997 in both the big-5 leagues and 26 other top division European championships. With 19 players, the French Ligue 1 is by far the most represented competition. The youngest footballer in the big-5 league tables is Dan-Axel Zagadou (Borussia Dortmund).

Players from all of the five major European championships except Germany head the big-5 league rankings: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Toulouse) for goalkeepers, Unai Núñez (Athletic Club) for centre backs, Kelvin Amian (Toulouse) for full backs, Lucas Tousart (Lyon) for defensive midfielders, Carlos Soler (Valencia) for attacking midfielders, as well as Richarlison (Watford) for forwards.

The most represented leagues among the remaining 26 competitions studied are the Dutch and Slovakian top divisions (8 players each), followed by the Croatian (6) and Ukrainian (5) ones. The youngest footballer in the rankings is Juho Hyvärinen (Rovaniemi). The average age on the pitch for all clubs and leagues analysed is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.

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Defensive impermeability: who can beat Manchester City?

Issue number 203 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses data provided by InStat to highlight the 100 clubs from 35 European competitions that conceded the least shots from their own box per domestic league game played since the start of the season. The lowest figure was recorded for Olimpija Ljubljana, while Manchester City heads the big-5 league rankings.

Only 12 clubs from the five major European leagues are in the top 100. This is mainly due to more open styles of play, as notably illustrated in the 28th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. Panathinaikos is the most impermeable team among those not ranked in the top three positions of their league.

The top 50 rankings for defence, possession and attack are available on the CIES Football Observatory website. For more information about data produced by the leading football data company InStat, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

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Transfer values per club: four potential billionaires

Issue number 202 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league teams according to the estimated transfer value of their players. The aggregated value of current squad members is above one billion euro for four clubs: Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, FC Barcelona and Chelsea FC.

Transfer values are estimated on the basis of the algorithm exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. According to this, Manchester City’s current squad has a total transfer value of almost €1.2 billion. Kevin de Bruyne is the potentially most expensive Manchester City player (€144.5 million), while three other City’s squad members are worth more than €100 million: Leroy Sané, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus.

The up-to-date estimated values for all big-5 league players are available in the ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory website. The freshly conceived transfer value widget presents the historical trends for each player. Media interested in using this tool can contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

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New study reveals growing instability in European football

Since 2009, the CIES Football Observatory has monitored the evolution of the demographics of players in 31 European top division leagues. The 2017 census reveals the intensification of the key trends observed throughout the period analysed: decrease of club-trained players, increase of expatriates and growing squad instability. The Monthly Report number 29 presents the data for all leagues studied.

Henceforth, club-trained players only account for 18.5% of squads (-4.7% since 2009). It is the lowest figure ever recorded. Conversely, the percentage of expatriates reached a new record high: 39.7% (+5.0% since 2009). A new record high was also observed with regard to the percentage of players signed during the year: 44.8% (+8.1% since 2009).

These trends reflect the increasing speculation on transfer operations and, more generally, in the management of professional teams across Europe. The central question is to know just how far this process can go without jeopardising the interest of competitions, the credibility of professional football and its sustainable development in the majority of countries.

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Does height matter in football?

Issue number 201 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the lists of the 50 clubs from 36 European leagues who fielded the tallest and shortest line-ups since the start of the season. At the head of the rankings are FC København (186.2cm) and Ludogorets Razgrad (177.0cm). But does height explain success at adult level?

No correlation exists between the average height of teams and results achieved. The gaps observed rather reflect different approaches to the game. While some coaches prefer tall players, other give priority to shorter ones. However, very short players will struggle to establish themselves as professionals. The average height of all footballers in the leagues surveyed is 182.1 cm.

In total, only 67 clubs out of 572 (11.7%) fielded players on average shorter than 180cm. Among them, we notably find Manchester City (Guardiola), OGC Nice (Favre), FC Barcelona (Valverde), Olympique Lyonnais (Génésio) and Real Madrid (Zidane). The data for all teams in 31 top division European leagues is available in the CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.

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