The last CIES Football Observatory study analyses the presence of expatriate players in the world. With 1,236 representatives abroad, Brazil is at top the table (+42 compared to 2017). France (821, +45) overtook Argentina (760, -26) as the second biggest exporter. The top 50 list is available in the 35th edition of the Monthly Report.

Brazilians are present in a record number of 78 associations out of the 93 covered by the study. The international path with the most expatriates involved goes from Brazil to Portugal. On the 1st of May 2018, 240 players from Brazil were playing in Portugal at professional adult level. The main destination for the French is England (99 players), while that of the Argentineans is Chile (106).

If we take population into account, the highest rate of expatriates per million of inhabitants was recorded for Iceland (180). This figure is above 100 only for one other association: Montenegro (134). It is also very high for double world champions Uruguay (96) and Croatia (80). In total, expatriates account for 21.2% of squads. This is 1.2% more than on the 1st of May 2017.

The average transfer value of Manchester City’s first team squad members estimated by means of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm reached a record high of €62.9 million. This is the greatest value measured at big-5 league level ahead of Barcelona (€55.3m) and Tottenham (€51.3m). The figures for all big-5 league teams are available in issue number 226 of the Weekly Post.

English Premier League economic power, outstanding performance, long-term contract duration and youthfulness are the key criteria explaining Manchester City’s first position. Seven of their players have an estimated transfer value of more than €100 million: Kevin de Bruyne, Leroy Sané, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Ederson Moraes, Bernardo Silva and Sergio Agüero.

Among the 31 teams whose players have an average estimated transfer value greater than €10 million are nine clubs from the Premier League, eight from the Serie A, six from the Liga and four from both the Bundesliga and the Ligue 1. The lowest ranked Premier League team, West Bromwich Albion, is 55th out of 98. This also reflects the economic dominance of the English top division.

Issue number 225 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post reveals the most likely World Cup winners according to an exclusive power index. This index combines the average percentage of matches played at domestic league level since July 2017 by the 23 most fielded players per team in the qualifying campaign with the average sporting level of employer clubs. Spain tops the list ahead of Brazil.

During current season, the 23 Spanish footballers most fielded in the qualification stage have on average played 81.1% of domestic league matches. This is the highest figure measured among all participating teams. The average sporting level of the clubs employing Spanish players is also the greatest overall: 1.37. According to these criteria, Spain is well placed to repeat its 2010 success. Three other teams have a power index of more than 80: Brazil, France and Germany.

At the opposite end of the table, the lowest power index was recorded for Panama. Two other nations have a score inferior to 25: Iran and Saudi Arabia. For all these countries, reaching the last 16 stage would be a great achievement. For more information about the features of players employed during the qualifications, please refer to the 30th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

Issue number 224 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the best performing big-5 league players whose contract runs out at the end of the season. Pepe Reina ranks first ahead of two other goalkeepers (Vicente Guaita and Gianluigi Buffon), as well as Arjen Robben. Only footballers having played at least 1,000 domestic league minutes during the current season are included in the rankings.

For outfield players, the CIES Football Observatory performance index takes into account the production and efficiency in six different areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. For goalkeepers, it includes the minutes per goal conceded, as well as the number and percentage of saves. Results achieved for matches played are also considered as a weighting factor.

In the top 50 list are many relatively young full international players such as Emre Can (Liverpool), Jack Wilshere (Arsenal), Leon Goretzka and Max Meyer (Schalke 04), Sanjin Prci? (Stade Rennais) and Stefan de Vrij (Lazio). As for Goretzka, who already signed for Bayern Munich, all these players will most probably be able to negotiate lucrative contracts in prestigious teams.

Gianluigi Buffon heads the table for the big-5 league players who have been for the longest period in their club employment. The legendary Italian goalkeeper already played for 17 seasons at Juventus. This is sixth months more than the second ranked footballer, Sergio Pellissier (Chievo), and one year more than for Andrés Iniesta (Barcelona) and Roman Weidenfeller (Borussia Dortmund). The top 110 list is available in issue number 223 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

In total, 61 footballers played for at least ten seasons in their current club. Among them are many other legendary players such as Lionel Messi (14 seasons in Barcelona’s first team squad), Giorgio Chiellini (13, Juventus), Sergio Ramos (13, Real Madrid), Michael Carrick (12, Manchester United), Marcelo (11.5, Real Madrid), Franck Ribéry (11, Bayern Munich), Marek Hamšík (11, Napoli), Fernando Torres (10, Atlético Madrid) and Cristiano Ronaldo (9, Real Madrid).

In five clubs, the most loyal squad member only played there for four seasons: Fiorentina (Badelj), Crotone (Martella), Getafe (Guaita), Nice (Mendy, Pléa and Pouplin), as well as Caen (Vercoutre, Féret, da Silva and Bazile). The freshly published 34th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the relationships between squad stability and success in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations.

The first CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report published in January 2015 studied club stability across Europe. Three years later, the thirty-fourth edition develops this issue by illustrating the value of long-term planning for football clubs. The indicator selected is the percentage of players recruited by their employer club since less than one year.

The study reveals that the best performing teams have much more stable squads than lesser competitive ones. Between 2009 and 2017, big-5 league champions had on average only about one in four new players as squad members. This proportion can be considered as an optimal balance to achieve success.

The Report also highlights the increasing instability of teams across Europe. On the 1st of October 2017, 44.9% of players were recruited during the year. This figure was only 36.7% in 2009. If this trend continues, footballers who have been with their employer club for more than one year will soon represent less than half of squad members.

To limit the growing instability, football’s governing bodies should act against the increasing financial gaps between teams both nationally and internationally. They should also combat corrupt practices at both transfer market and club management levels. It is also necessary to limit the speculation around players’ mobility, notably through a greater protection of training clubs, the enforcement of the third-party ownership ban and the reinforcement of the regulations regarding football intermediaries.

Visit the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas to know more about the demographic features of teams in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations.

Barcelona and Real Madrid top the rankings for the longest average contract duration of first team squad members. Six out of the eight top ranked clubs are still competing in European Cups. This illustrates the relationships between long-term planning and success. The 222nd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all big-5 league teams.

On average, a Barcelona first team squad member has 3.23 years of contract remaining. This figure is 3.59 for the 11 players who have been fielded the most in domestic league games so far this year. The longest average contract durations for the other big-5 leagues were measured for  Tottenham , LOSC Lille, RB Leipzig and AS Rome.

At the opposite end of the table, the lowest figure overall was observed for the French side Amiens (0.99 years). In three clubs only, the average contract duration of the 11 most fielded players is below one year: Crotone, Benevento and Strasbourg. All the teams at the bottom of the rankings are confronted with the difficulty of renovating their squads without losing competitiveness.

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Issue number 221 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the percentage of matches with a gap of three or more goals in 29 European competitions. The highest figure so far this season was observed for the Champions League: 29% (+8% compared to the same moment during last season). This percentage is twice as high as at Europa League level: 16% (+3%).

The English Premier League had so far the third highest proportion of very uneven matches among the competitions surveyed: 22% (+4%). At the opposite end of the table, the German Bundesliga is by far the big-5 European league with the lowest percentage of games with a three or more goal gap: 11% (-6%). The lowest proportion overall was measured in Russia: 10% (-4%).

The percentage of imbalanced fixtures increased in 20 out of the 29 competitions analysed. Overall, the average goal gap per match increased from 1.37 to 1.40. The highest figure for this indicator was also recorded at Champions League level: 1.87 from 1.55 last season (+21%). This analysis reveals the general trend towards competitive unbalance in European football.

The 220th issue of the Weekly Post presents players from the big-5 who performed the best in domestic league matches during the last three months. Footballers are ranked according to the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to measure the technical performance of players. Only footballers who played at least 45 minutes in eight championship matches are included in the rankings.

The CIES Football methodology takes into account the performance of players in six different areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. In addition, the results obtained by the clubs of employment for matches in which players were fielded for at least 45 minutes were also taken into consideration as a weighting factor.

The following players head the table in their respective position: Hugo Lloris (goalkeepers), Kalidou Koulibaly (centre backs), Mário Rui (full backs), Toni Kroos (defensive midfielders), Christian Eriksen (box-to-box midfielders), Lionel Messi (wingers) and Cristiano Ronaldo (forwards). This widget allows users accessing the rankings for different periods.

The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post number 219 presents the 50 big-5 league players with the most positive gap between their current transfer value and the fee paid for them by their employer club. The greatest potential added value could be achieved by Tottenham Hotspur with Harry Kane: €198 million.

Another player trained by his club of employment ranks second: Lionel Messi. However, given Messi’s age, the potential profit for Barcelona will progressively reduce. Dele Alli is third with a potential added value of €164 million. The possible benefit for Atlético Madrid regarding Antoine Griezmann does not take into account the €100 million buy-out clause negotiated by the Frenchman during his last contract extension.

The estimated values are calculated using an exclusive algorithm conceived by the CIES Football Observatory research team. An increasing number of professional clubs and football intermediaries have recourse to the approach developed for transfer negotiations and litigation. The estimations for all big-5 league players are available here.

The 33rd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents a comparative analysis of the presence of club-trained players in 31 European top divisions between 2009 and 2017. It notably reveals that footballers having been for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21 in their club of employment accounted for almost one quarter of champion winning team squads, compared to only about one fifth for all clubs surveyed.

The ability to develop footballers for the first team squad contributes to the competitive advantage held by the most successful clubs. However, this finding is partially related to the current club-trained player definition. Indeed, after three years, a player recruited up until the age of 18 can still be considered as a club-trained footballer for the team that signed him. This encourages top European teams to lure the best talents initially trained by less competitive clubs.

A change in the definition of club-trained or association-trained players would be useful to ensure a sounder development of the European game. Lowering the relevant age range from 15 to 21 years to 12 to 17 years would be helpful in limiting the increasing speculation around the transfer of minors. Indeed, according to FIFA rules, communitarian players can only move abroad after their 16th birthday. This would de facto disallow recruiting teams or associations to acquire a training status for players imported as minors.

While having a well performing youth academy does not lead directly to success, the report shows that it is a relevant indicator of the club’s ability to look to the future. The existence of a powerful youth setting is also a good indicator of the club’s strength as a territorially embedded organisation. Beyond short-term results, investing in youth training can be considered a gauge for the sustainable development of the club as an institution.

Issue number 218 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights big-5 league players whose transfer value has increased the most during the last six months. Only footballers who did not change team or extend their contract are included in the rankings. In the top positions are three English Premier League players: Mohammed Salah (+€74.7M), Ederson Moraes (+€74.4M) and Leroy Sané (+€63.0M).

The strongest increases for players from the four other major European chmpionships were recorded for Kylian Mbappé (+€54.7M) in the French Ligue 1, Paulinho Bezerra (+€42.4) in the Spanish Liga, Sergej Milinkovi?-Savi? (+€40.7M) in the Italian Serie A and Dayot Upamecano (+€35.6M) in the German Bundesliga.

Transfer value estimates are based on the exclusive algorithm developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. Current figures for all of the big-5 league footballers can be accessed here. This unique widget presents the trends since last summer. For more information and analysis, you can follow us on Twitter.