Every month, the CIES Football Observatory updates the transfer valuations of big-5 league players using its exclusive algorithm. Issue number 239 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 list for each position. The highest figure overall was recorded for Kylian Mbappé (€216.5m). Ederson, Umtiti, Alexander-Arnold and Alli top their position’s rankings.

The transfer value of Kylian Mbappé increased by €23m compared to October. This allowed the French prodigy to outrank Harry Kane (€197.3m). The Englishman is now second ahead of Neymar, Mohammed Salah and Philippe Coutinho. Ageing Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are now valued at €170.6m and €123.6m respectively.

This research note explains the CIES Football Observatory approach to predict from a scientific perspective the transfer value of professional players. Football stakeholders have increasingly recourse to our unique expertise for different purposes from decision-making to litigation. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

Issue number 238 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights clubs having trained the most players currently present in 31 European top divisions and the big-5 leagues respectively. The highest figures were recorded for AFC Ajax for players in the 31 top divisions (77) and Real Madrid for footballers in the big-5 (36).

Compared to 2017, Dynamo Kiev went up from 7th to 2nd place at European level (+ 15 players), reaching Partizan Belgrade (+10). The number of players trained by AFC Ajax also increased (+ 7). At big-5 league level, the top three remained the same. However, Olympique Lyonnais went up from 3rd to 2nd position (35 players, + 4), approaching Real Madrid (36, -4) and outranking Barcelona (34, =).

Following UEFA definition, training clubs are teams where footballers played for at least three seasons between 15 and 21 years. The percentage of minutes played by club-trained footballers in all of the teams from the 31 competitions studied is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas. More exclusive data is published through Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

The CIES Football Observatory has developed an exclusive approach to assess the performance of players using the statistics produced by the leading data company OptaPro. Issue number 237 of the Weekly Post presents big-5 league footballers with the highest scores for the last 1,000 domestic league minutes played.

Aymeric Laporte heads the table in the area of rigour (duels), while Étienne Capoue ranks first for recovery (interceptions). Jorginho has the highest score in distribution and Cristiano Ronaldo in shooting. Neymar is at the top in two different tables: take on (dribbles) and chance creation (assists). According to the CIES Football Observatory approach, the Brazilian star is also the big-5 league MVP for the period considered.

At the head of the tables for footballers who played for less than 450 domestic league minutes during current season are Nicolás Otamendi (rigour), Milan Badelj (recovery), Marco Verratti (distribution), Douglas Costa (take on), Kevin de Bruyne (chance creation and MVP), as well as Konstantinos Mitroglou (shooting). More data is available in the exclusive player profile comparator.

Only three clubs in Europe have fielded this season players who have been in the first team squad since more than five years on average: Real Madrid (5.84 years), Barcelona (5.36) and Bayern Munich (5.26). Issue number 236 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post also reveals that another Champions League participant, Viktoria Plze?, is the most stable club outside of the big-5 (4.28 years).

The majority of teams with the highest stability figures are among the most competitive teams in their respective leagues. The opposite holds true for the least stable clubs. The lowest stability levels were recorded for the Croatian team Istra (0.15 years) among the 31 top divisions surveyed and for the Italian side Parma (0.65 years) at big-5 league level.

The data for all teams in the competitions analysed is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas. Monthly Reports number 34 and number 38 discuss from multiple angles the link between stability and success. More analysis is also presented on a daily basis from our Twitter account. Follow us!

The CIES Football Observatory just published its 38th Monthly Report. The study analyses club strategies in the area of player turnover for the five major European leagues since 2005/06. It reveals that too many changes in line-ups do not constitute a good strategy for optimising results. On the contrary, high turnover levels tend to affect players’ confidence and aggravate the situation.

Seventeen of the twenty teams whose 11 most fielded footballers played for the least percentage of minutes relegated. This is a clear reflection of the real danger faced by clubs of finding themselves trapped in a vicious circle of poor results and instability, and vice versa. The existence of a negative correlation between turnover and points per match confirms the relevance of sticking with a core group of footballers to optimise performance.

The only team in the period studied that fielded less than 20 players over a season was Borussia Mönchengladbach in 2014/15. This did not prevent them from finishing in an excellent third place. That season, the team coached by Lucien Favre also participated in the Europa League, where it reached the last 16. While the achievement of good results reduces the incentives for player turnover, the Report shows that low player turnover in turn favours good results.

Issue number 235 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights teams having fielded the youngest and oldest line-ups in domestic league games so far this season (or since 1st of July for summer leagues). The extreme values at big-5 league level were recorded for two Italian teams: Fiorentina (23.79 years) and Chievo (29.53 years).

Danish side Nordsjaelland fielded the youngest line-ups for the 31 European top division leagues surveyed: 21.36 years on average. Two clubs from the youngest competition analysed, Croatia, rank second and third: NK Rudeš and NK Istra 1961. Four Turkish and three Cypriot teams are among the ten clubs having fielded the oldest line-ups. The highest figure overall was recorded for Europa League participants Apollon Limassol (30.93 years).

The data for all teams from the 31 top divisions studied are available for free in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas. This unique tool also presents the on-the-pitch figures for club-trained, expatriates, stability, turnover and height. Enjoy!

Issue number 234 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks clubs across Europe according to the number of minutes per shot attempted. The following teams head the table in the five major European leagues: Manchester City, Juventus, Olympique Lyonnais, Barcelona and Bayern Munich. Slavia Praha tops the rankings outside of the big-5.

So far this season, Manchester City players only needed 4’02” to take a shot. At the opposite end of the table, Huddersfield Town is the Premier League team needing the most minutes to shot: 12’08”. The highest figure overall in the 35 competitions surveyed was recorded for Hamilton Academical (Scotland): 18’12”.

The biggest gap within the same league was observed in Greece: from 5’00” for Olympiacos up to 18’07” for Panetolikos. Data used comes from OptaPro for the big-5 leagues and the English Championship and InStat for the remaining competitions. More information is published from our Twitter account or available on demand at football.observatory@cies.ch.

Manchester City has spent almost €1 billion in transfer indemnities to sign its present squad members (add-ons included). This is the highest figure ever measured for a football team. Issue number 233 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all of the big-5 league teams.

Seven English Premier League teams are in the 11 top positions of the table. The biggest increase compared to last year was measured for Liverpool (from €437M to €704M). The Spanish giants (Barcelona and Real Madrid), Juventus and Paris St-Germain (2nd overall) are the only non-English teams in the top 11. The best-ranked German Bundesliga club, Bayern Munich, is 12th.

Total transfer expenditure to make up the squad for clubs from the five major European leagues went constantly up during the last decade. In 2010, a big-5 league had spent on average €67M to sign its squad members. In 2018, this figure reached a new record high of €161M. During the same period, the amounts invested to assemble the squad by English Premier League clubs went up from €126M to €326M.

The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of the 2018/19 season assesses from an economic perspective paid transfers having taken place during last summer. It highlights that Thibault Courtois went to Real Madrid for a much lower amount than the estimated fair price (-€23 M). Conversely, Chelsea FC paid over the odds to recruit his substitute: Kepa Arrizabalaga (+€45 M).

The fair price corresponds to the average between the estimated cost for the most likely buyer before the transfer and the current transfer value. Both figures were calculated using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The correlation between fees estimated and reported for players transferred for money from big-5 league teams during last transfer window was 75%.

Rodri Hernández, Bryan Cristante, Fabinho Tavares and Clément Lenglet are alongside Thibaut Courtois in the top five for the best operations from an engaging club perspective. For Rodri and Lenglet, the existence of a release clause helped recruiting teams to sign them at a favourable price. As for Kepa Arrizabalaga, the CIES Football Observatory analysis reveals that releasing teams negotiated very well the transfers of Riyad Mahrez, Thilo Kehrer, Yerry Mina and Alex Meret.

The CIES Football Observatory opens its 2018/19 season with the publication of the 37th Monthly Report. The study analyses from a financial standpoint transfer operations carried out by big-5 league clubs since 2010. The total expenditure for 2018 was €5.82 billion (-2.4% compared to 2017), of which €4.71 billion invested during the freshly concluded summer transfer window (-9.9%).

In 2018, the transfer spending of Premier League clubs accounted for 36.5% of the total big-5 league teams expenditure. Since 2010, English top division clubs had a net transfer spend of -€5.71 billion (78.3% of the overall big-5 league deficit). Manchester City has invested the most in transfer indemnities since 2010 (€1.47 billion). It also has the most negative balance sheet for transfer operations (-€1.03 billion).

Despite the slight drop in spending observed in 2018 compared to the 2017 record year, the economic development of the top of the professional football pyramid suggests that a renewed increase of sums invested in transfer fees will happen in the near future. While talent concentration makes possible the assembly of top performing teams, it also reinforces the imbalance of competitions.

Every month since January 2015, the CIES Football Observatory has been publishing reports to inform football stakeholders and all people passionate about the beautiful game on the latest trends observed at sporting, demographic and economic level. For the first time, the papers written during the 2017/18 season were gathered within a “Football Analytics” e-book.

In addition, during the last year, we spared no effort to develop exclusive contents allowing our website users to broaden the scope of their knowledge on football. Henceforth, the following unique tools are available free of charge:

Player profile comparator (big-5)

Transfer value trends (big-5)

Player performance rankings (big-5)

Club performance rankings (35 European leagues)

Digital Atlas (31 European top divisions)

The publication of the increasingly successful and influential Weekly Posts will start again after the summer break. The next Monthly Report will be published just after the end of the transfer window. It will analyse market trends from an economic standpoint. During the summer, exclusive information will be presented through our Twitter account and Facebook page.

To know more about corporate sponsorship opportunities, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The 36th CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the composition of squads in five major women’s leagues: four European (Germany, Sweden, France and England), as well as the Women’s National Soccer League in the United States. The study highlights the increases in the average age of players. The number of expatriate footballers goes also up both on the pitch and in squads.

The economic development and professionalisation of the women’s game are leading to several processes already observed at men’s level. A convergence process notably exists in terms of players’ age. While on average still younger than their male counterparts, women playing in the leagues surveyed are getting older. Up until a certain level, this process will probably continue in the years to come.

A second important trend is the growth of the expatriate presence. While also still below the levels observed in the most competitive men’s leagues, the number of expatriate footballers in women’s clubs surveyed is on the increase. In this case too, a further growth is expected for the next years. The diversity of origins represented in the major championships should also go up.

Finally, as for the men’s game, without corrective measures, financial divides between clubs both at national and international level will increase. The economic development will indeed benefit some clubs and leagues much more than others. The high concentration of full internationals in some clubs (Wolfsburg, Lyon, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, etc.) already illustrates this process.