The online database on the CIES Football Observatory website has been updated. The new database now includes data on the previous five completed seasons of the big-5 European leagues (from 2008/09 to 2012/13).
All interested users can now actively consult and access the trends observed in each of the big-5 leagues in relation to the following indicators:
• Average age
• Average height
• % of club-trained players
• % of full internationals
• % of expatriates
• Average stay
More detailed descriptions for each indicator are available here
The CIES Football Observatory is happy to publish the first issue of the Big-5 Weekly Post for the 2013/14 season. We are also delighted to unveil a brand new format.
This edition presents the data on the average number of new signings fielded by clubs since the start of the season. New signings are players recruited during the summer transfer window. Players back to the club after a loan period are also included in the new signings category.
While clubs in Italy on average fielded since the start of the season 3.1 new signings, this figure is only 2.5 in Germany. At club level, the average number of new signings on the pitch varies from 7.1 at Genoa to 0.1 at Cagliari.
The data for each big-5 league club is presented in the 46th Big-5 Weekly Post which is now available here. Thanks to our partnership with Opta Pro, once a month we will also be revealing rankings for the most productive footballers according to our exclusive key performance indicators.
For the fourth time, the CIES Football Observatory presents its predictions for the big-5 European leagues. According to our research conclusions the teams with the greatest chance of success this year are Manchester United in England, Real Madrid in Spain, Borussia Dortmund in Germany, Juventus in Italy and Paris St-Germain in France.
Our predictions are based on the analysis of player profile data from the perspective of “experience” (number of matches played and results achieved), “prolificacy” (number of goals scored and level of the competition) and “stability” (number of seasons with the employer club and years remaining on contract).
Using these indicators, we have classified teams by taking into account the 11 players with the highest scores (potential “starting 11”), as well as squad members ranked between the 12th and 22nd positions (“substitutes”). The final ranking has been estimated on the basis of the average position in the two tables. In case of equality, we ranked teams according to their overall score.
Manchester United and Paris St-Germain are the only two most probable champions ranked in first position for both “starting 11” and “substitute” players. While the competitive advantage of Borussia Dortmund is mainly related to the 11 players with the highest scores, and that of Juventus is due to the quality of substitutes. The same holds true for Real Madrid with respect to Barcelona.
Monaco is the only promoted team with a real chance of finishing the season in the top three of their domestic league. Conversely, this year many prestigious teams risk being sucked into a fight against relegation (Fulham, Levante, Valenciennes, Werder Bremen, Torino, etc.).
Using the indicators described above, we were also able to identify the players with the highest scores, and whose performance levels should have the greatest impact on results obtained by their respective teams (key players).
The full predictions may be downloaded here.
According to the CIES Football Observatory analysis, big-5 league clubs spent over 2 billion euro for the permanent transfer of first team squad members during the last transfer window. This is the highest figure since 2008 and most probably also in the history of football.
With 719 million euro invested for new players, English teams were the most active. It is the highest level ever recorded. A new record high was also measured in France (383 million euro) and Germany (259 million).
The transfer expenditure of the 10 clubs that spent the most account for 49% of fees paid. This figure is at an all-time high and reflects the growing concentration of wealth in top level football. The percentage of fees paid by the three most active clubs per league varies from 85.8% in France to 45.6% in England.
More information is presented in the issue 45 of the Big-5 Weekly Post. For further enquiries, please contact us at email@example.com
Throughout the summer, the CIES Football Observatory will compare the transfer fees paid to sign players under contract with big-5 league clubs with the values estimated by our econometric model. Every week, a new edition of the Big-5 Weekly Post will present the comparison between the fee amounts paid and the estimated ones for the latest transfers, as well as the most significant gaps.
So far, the results confirm the accuracy of our model. The first Post comparing transfer fees is available here (issue 39). It includes the 30 players transferred to date for the highest fees. To stay up to date, please provide your email address in the registration form in the bottom left of the Observatory’s website homepage.
The statistical model used was built on the basis of paying transfers of big-5 league players from the 2008/09 season onwards. The estimation takes into account a multitude of variables such as players’ pitch performances, notably the number of matches and goals, length of contract remaining, age, position and international experience.
More information is presented in the 2013 edition of our Annual Review. The publication is on sale in the online shop of the International Centre for Sports Studies. Students, academics and journalists may ask for a discount by writing to firstname.lastname@example.org